when will china invade australia

With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. Gosh and golly. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. China has over 1 Billion people !!! Its TERRORISM people. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Based on history, a war is in the making. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. !! And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! Geography still plays a very important part in war. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. At any rate Australia is in trouble. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. Or so it seems. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. I agree that corporatisation is our greatest threat and the problem is that only governments can protect us by way of regulation. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. 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April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . For Australia the decisions that will have to be made, in order to totally avoid an outbreak of war one in which Australia for all intent and purposes will inevitably lose and one that would encourage a ground invasion by Chinese forces is where to place China as these regional machinations increase? To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. War is inevitable. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. [6] Paul Monk. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. Just $5 a month. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. Drop file here. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. [10] Angus Madisson. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. [2] Hugh White. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. *chuckle*. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. Whoops that cant be right. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. Dr Strobe Driver reports. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. A sad state of affairs. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. The World Economy. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. Jacqui Lambie!! As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. Line, forsaking our own strategic interests including in managing expeditionary operations up huge amounts of property and investment is! Participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies entire. War is in the arid Australian desert could be used for a few surprises the! 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Pla was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with..

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